Monthly Download: December 2025

December capped off a strong year with mixed market results. U.S. equities were subdued while international markets led performance, and the typical “Santa Claus rally” failed to materialize despite a December Fed rate cut, easing inflation, and stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP growth. Cyclical sectors outperformed defensive areas, Treasury yields moved higher, and credit spreads remained tight—reflecting expectations for a slower pace of rate cuts in 2026. Overall, markets continue to price in a constructive macro backdrop supported by resilient economic growth, moderating inflation, and a stable labor market.

We also explore three market themes: the Bank of Japan’s rate hike to a 30-year high, the growth of Business Development Companies, and silver’s sharp rally in December.